If you are not reading Mark Steyn on a regular basis, you’re missing some of the most insightful and well-written commentary available anywhere. One of the insights I’ve most appreciated since I read Steyn’s book America Alone some years ago is that we in the west are destroying ourselves through demography. Barbaric cultures are simply outbreeding us. Consider this from one of his recent articles:
Ten years ago this month – January 2006 – The Wall Street Journal and The New Criterion published my first draft of what would become the thesis of my bestselling book, America Alone. The Journal headline sums it up: ‘It’s the Demography, Stupid.’ Opening paragraph:
Most people reading this have strong stomachs, so let me lay it out as baldly as I can: Much of what we loosely call the Western world will not survive this century, and much of it will effectively disappear within our lifetimes, including many if not most Western European countries. There’ll probably still be a geographical area on the map marked as Italy or the Netherlands–probably–just as in Istanbul there’s still a building called St. Sophia’s Cathedral. But it’s not a cathedral; it’s merely a designation for a piece of real estate. Likewise, Italy and the Netherlands will merely be designations for real estate. The challenge for those who reckon Western civilization is on balance better than the alternatives is to figure out a way to save at least some parts of the West.
The argument was straightforward. The western world is going out of business because it’s given up having babies. The 20th century welfare state, with its hitherto unknown concepts such as spending a third of your adult lifetime in “retirement”, is premised on the basis that there will be enough new citizens to support the old. But there won’t be. Lazy critics of my thesis thought that I was making a ‘prediction’, and that my predictions were no more reliable than Al Gore’s or Michael Mann’s on the looming eco-apocalypse. I tried to explain that it’s not really a prediction at all:
When it comes to forecasting the future, the birthrate is the nearest thing to hard numbers. If only a million babies are born in 2006, it’s hard to have two million adults enter the workforce in 2026 (or 2033, or 2037, or whenever they get around to finishing their Anger Management and Queer Studies degrees). And the hard data on babies around the Western world is that they’re running out a lot faster than the oil is. ‘Replacement’ fertility rate–i.e., the number you need for merely a stable population, not getting any bigger, not getting any smaller–is 2.1 babies per woman. Some countries are well above that: the global fertility leader, Somalia, is 6.91, Niger 6.83, Afghanistan 6.78, Yemen 6.75. Notice what those nations have in common?
Scroll way down to the bottom of the Hot One Hundred top breeders and you’ll eventually find the United States, hovering just at replacement rate with 2.07 births per woman. Ireland is 1.87, New Zealand 1.79, Australia 1.76. But Canada’s fertility rate is down to 1.5, well below replacement rate; Germany and Austria are at 1.3, the brink of the death spiral; Russia and Italy are at 1.2; Spain 1.1, about half replacement rate. That’s to say, Spain’s population is halving every generation. By 2050, Italy’s population will have fallen by 22%.
This, gentle readers, is where it gets scary. Drop to 1.1 or so, and a nation’s population drops by half every generation as those remaining continue to age. Think of contemporary Germany. Fewer and fewer young people, a rapidly aging population, and the Germans are willingly importing millions of agitated Muslims that have no intention of becoming Germans. They intend to conquer Germany and the rest of the west by any means possible, and smothering us with little jihadists, perhaps the result of the rape of German women, will work just as well as killing us all. It’ll just take awhile longer.
Enter Islam, which sportingly volunteered to be the children we couldn’t be bothered having ourselves, and which kind offer was somewhat carelessly taken up by the post-Christian west. As I wrote a decade ago:
The design flaw of the secular social-democratic state is that it requires a religious-society birthrate to sustain it. Post-Christian hyperrationalism is, in the objective sense, a lot less rational than Catholicism or Mormonism. Indeed, in its reliance on immigration to ensure its future, the European Union has adopted a 21st-century variation on the strategy of the Shakers, who were forbidden from reproducing and thus could increase their numbers only by conversion.
In essence, Steyn is pointing out the reality that progressives tend to have far fewer children than conservatives. By the very nature of their beliefs and lifestyles, societies dominated by Progressive/socialists have not only created the conditions of their demise, but the inevitable and bloody death of all the lifestyles and narratives they hold dear. Such people also tend to lack the will and martial spirit necessary to fight for their survival.
Danish nightclubs demand guests have to speak Danish, English or German to be allowed in after ‘foreign men in groups’ attack female revelers
But don’t worry, it won’t be a problem for long: On the German and Swedish ‘migrant’ numbers, there won’t be a lot of ‘female revelry’ in Europe’s future. The formerly firebreathing feminists at The Guardian and the BBC are already falling as mute as battered wives – saying nothing, looking away, making excuses, clutching at rationalizations… Ten years ago, I wrote:
The problem is that secondary-impulse societies mistake their weaknesses for strengths–or, at any rate, virtues–and that’s why they’re proving so feeble at dealing with a primal force like Islam.
‘Multiculturalism’ was less an immigration policy than an advertisement of our moral virtue. So the really bad thing about New Year’s Eve is not that Continental women got groped and raped by coarse backward ‘migrants’, but that all these gropes and rapes might provoke the even more coarse and backward natives.
We now have more than eleven million illegal immigrants in America, somewhere, everywhere, and Mr. Obama is desperate to import millions more, even after various of his lackeys have admitted that a great many of those may very well be Islamic terrorists. This is why Mr. Obama, during his final year in office, is pushing the idea, as he said at his final State of the Union Address, that it should be easier to vote, not harder. Bring them all to the polls! Non-citizens, felons, the dead, vote early, vote often, as often as you please! For the moment, we are still replacing ourselves at a roughly 1:1 ratio.
To conquer America, our enemies don’t have to kill us, they just have to outvote us. Progressives always figure the barbarian hordes won’t kill them–professional courtesy, you know.