AR-15s, Blue states, D/S/Cs, David Harsanyi, DeSantis, Don Surber, F-15s, federalism, Joe Biden's handlers, John Hinderaker, Kelly Turnbull, Kurt Schlichter, Marjorie Taylor Greene, national divorce, Red States, secession, Second Civil War, Thomas Jefferson, Trump
As regular readers know, I’ve been writing about what might trigger secession, a second civil war, or both, for some time. The SMM Second Civil War archive is here. Making predictions about such things is an exercise in futility, though it’s worthwhile to speak of trends and where they might lead, not to encourage conflict, but to prevent it. One trend the media is studiously avoiding mentioning is China’s union with Russia, making those nations the most powerful on Earth, and China’s brokering of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Part of the aforementioned agreement is the parties will use Chinese currency for trade, displacing the dollar. While Biden’s handlers have concentrated on devastating America, our enemies are winning without fighting. With D/S/Cs doing their subversion for them, they just have to sit back and laugh.
Why is this important? With all of the problems Joe Biden’s handlers have inflicted on America in just two years, these realignments have the very real potential to end the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. This will have catastrophic effects. They’ve united America’s most dangerous enemies, made those enemies the world’s most powerful bloc, and set the stage for the rapid decline of America’s influence and economy. Oh yes, Russia is also going to be providing most of China’s energy needs, strengthening both countries and enabling them to more effectively prepare for and threaten war. They have also united the two most dangerous Muslim nations in the Middle East, and all but crushed American influence in the region. Arabs and Persians favor the strong horse. In two years, Biden’s handlers have wiped away a century of American dominance, economic strength, diplomacy and leadership.
Biden’s handlers have sold our Strategic Petroleum Reserve to China, and depleted our armaments by sending them to Ukraine. It will be a miracle of China doesn’t seize Taiwan within the last years of the Meat Puppet Administration. If they do, who is going to stop them? Who has the ammunition? Who has the bunker fuel?
While you’re considering that, let’s take a few minutes to check in on a variety of ideas about America’s future, beginning with John Hinderaker at Powerline:
Disunion: It’s Not So Unpopular
Marjorie Taylor Greene made headlines by suggesting that it may be time for a ‘national divorce,’ with red states and blue states going their separate ways. She was roundly denounced in nearly all quarters, as though she had called for a civil war. But in fact, her point was the same one I have made more than once: disunion is a real possibility, and the alternative to disunion is a rebirth of federalism.
Rasmussen was first to go into the field to see what Americans think of these ideas. Perhaps surprisingly, the idea of a “national divorce” is by by no means beyond the pale:
Georgia Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene made headlines last month when she declared on Twitter: ‘We need a national divorce. We need to separate by red states and blue states and shrink the federal government.’ Thirty-four percent (34%) of voters agree with that statement, including 14% who Strongly Agree. Fifty-seven percent (57%) disagree with Greene’s call for a ‘national divorce,’ including 43% who Strongly Disagree.
Hmmm. 34%–a third of the country–is not an insubstantial number.
As you would expect, conservatives are most likely to think that ‘you go your way, I’ll go mine’ is not a bad idea:
Forty-seven percent (47%) of Republicans at least somewhat agree that red states and blue states ‘need a national divorce,’ as do 26% of Democrats and 27% of voters not affiliated with either major party.
There is more of interest at the link, including this remarkable data point:
Breaking down the electorate by income categories, 55% of voters in the highest bracket – earning more than $200,000 a year – rate Biden as doing a good or excellent job of uniting Americans….
Which reasonably suggest such people are clueless, or believe no matter what happens, they’ll be unaffected and live as they currently live, or better. Such people manufacture and live in their own reality and believe they’ll never have to live in the reality of Normal Americans. At The Federalist, David Harsanyi has a different idea:
Generally speaking, I’m sympathetic to the idea that the political left is unable to accept a truly diverse nation. Virtually every legislative policy proposal from modern Democrats — and every policy issued by edict — strengthens federal power and economic control over states. Modern Democrats are champions of direct democracy, an effort to undercut the choices of local communities and individuals. When they don’t get their way, the D.C. bureaucracy steps in to circumvent the will of states. And when courts stop them, Democrats work to delegitimize and weaken the judiciary. Just this week, Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., argued states should simply disregard the Supreme Court when they don’t agree with a decision. [skip]
None of that means a ‘national divorce’ — really secession, since other states are unlikely to concede to a split — isn’t a reckless thing for someone who took a vow to defend the Constitution to advocate. Even if we took a moment to seriously contemplate the idea, how would it be achieved? We aren’t separated ideologically into large geographic regions or even states, but rather urban, suburban, and rural areas. Conservatives like to share that map showing virtually the entire country painted in electoral red — and it matters more than Democrats like to admit. But we can’t discount that density also matters. A “national divorce” would create even smaller minorities and divisions, but little difference in the way of policy.
Harsanyi’s views are certainly optimistic. He ends with this:
None of this is to argue there aren’t serious problems facing the nation, but Big Tech’s relentless highlighting of every decisive moment, every rabid voice, and every radical position clouds our view of reality. The nastier and crazier you pretend to be, the more misleading your tweets, and the more partisan you act, the more followers you can expect. The incentive of social media success is corrosive. Most of it just exacerbates political divisions.
In the real world, you probably live in proximity to plenty of people with different religious, cultural, and ideological values, yet, despite what you’ve heard, we’re a nation with negligible political violence. In many ways, despite the mess politicians have made, our lives are better than ever. Let’s keep it that way.
This is akin to what I’ve so often written: to live together, all Americans need to agree to abide by the Constitution and the rule of law. In essence, to live our lives and to leave others alone. Harsanyi is sympathetic to the idea Democrats/Socialists/Communists are unwilling to do that. I’m convinced the contemporary Democrat Party is largely socialist, and heading full steam toward Communism, so I’m afraid I’m quite certain they’re not willing to abide by the Constitution, when much, if not most, of their rhetoric is prefaced with the urgent need to “fundamentally transform” America. The Constitution and the rule of law stand in the way of that transformation.
At Substack, Don Surber suggests we’re already in the midst of a national divorce. He begins by quoting a tweet from Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene:
Yes, the red California that gave us Reagan is gone and that was another time long ago. CA is now like a weird communist country.
Yes, NY gave us Trump, but Trump left NY because of how bad and blue NY is and NY is so political and corrupt now they are actually trying to throw Trump in jail.
Yes, VA flipped red with Youngkin but it was because parents were fed up with their school boards and a trans raped girls in the girls bathroom, but Loundon County is still unchanged, so really how red is VA?
And Matt Gaetz is right when he says our government constantly cheats on its own people with foreign countries. Marriage counseling we all need.
Reducing the power and size of the federal government and giving more to the states in order to protect ourselves and our kids from the abusive left is actually the bold action that needs to be taken in order for the left to be able to realize how insane and abusive they have become.
‘Just like the prodigal son, once the left gets to truly live in their own filth they have created without us, then they will be able to realize the error of their ways.
Until then, most of us don’t want to be forced to accept and live in their filthy abusive ways with them anymore.
Unlike Greene, I’m unconvinced D/S/Cs are capable of admitting they’re living in the “filth” they created, or of doing anything to change it. As I’ve so often written, D/S/C beliefs are akin to a cultish religion. Their ideas and policies are non-falsifiable, perfect, and as such, cannot possibly be wrong. When they inevitably fail, that failure is either denied–it’s disinformation!–or they say the apparent failure is because they magnanimously allow Normal Americans to continue to exist, and the ungrateful Deplorables sabotage their brilliant policies. Or not enough money has been spent, or not enough time has passed for the wonders of their policies to be fully manifest, or lately, TRUMP! and they’re working up to DESANTIS!
We see this inability of D/S/Cs to admit error all around us. Defund the police lunatics are now beginning to suggest they never said that and it was Republicans all along, but they’re not doing anything effective to deal with crime. They continue to try to wreck the economy even further with Climate Change lunacy, even when any sane person has to know their pipe dreams are impossible to implement. Yet, they continue to waste billions upon billions to no effect, and scream we must spend trillions or we’re all doomed by a date certain.
Take the link and read the rest—all the articles—where Surber provides actual history indicating the idea of a national divorce is not at all new, nor has it been proposed by insubstantial people. Surber again:
Politico reported on October 6, 2021, ‘A recent survey by the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia found that about 50% of Donald Trump voters and 40% of Joe Biden voters agreed to some extent with the proposition that the country should split up, with either red or blue states seceding.’
This is important:
The idea of another civil war seems preposterous in this age in which so few men are armed. Federal law from 1792 to 1903 required white men to own firearms to defend the country. During the Civil War, Lincoln and a Republican Congress extended the law to include black men.
One reason Democrats may not want a civil war is the nukes and stealth bombers are in the red states. As Biden said, ‘If you wanted or if you think you need to have weapons to take on the government, you need F-15s and maybe some nuclear weapons.’
Red states have both.
And the people who know how, and when, to use them. Red states also have an increasing number of America’s factories, oil, gas and coal fields and refineries. They also have most of the land capable of producing food, and the people who know how to produce it. There is a remarkable lack of farms and ranches in D/S/C ruled cities. They also generate most of America’s electric power. I’d also note, red states have most of the privately owned weapons in the nation, as well as an unfathomable amount of ammunition apart from that in National Guard and active duty military armories.
Here’s where Surber has a particularly relevant point:
But Joe Blow overlooks the obvious. The national divorce is taking place. People are voting with their feet. [emphasis mine]
Last year, 9 of the top 10 states in population gains were red states — led by Florida.
7 of the top 10 losers were blue states — led by New York.
The Los Angeles Times reported on February 15, 2023, ‘The California exodus has shown no sign of slowing down as the state’s population dropped by more than 500,000 people between April 2020 and July 2022, with the number of residents leaving surpassing those moving in by nearly 700,000.’
‘The population decrease was second only to New York, which lost about 15,000 more people than California, census data show.’
That was the third consecutive year of a population loss by California, ending more than a century of growth. But illegal aliens have propped up its population for over a decade, masking the loss of actual citizens.
The people fleeing blue states for free states are taking their tax dollars, and hands-on productivity, with them, yet the states they flee continue to raise taxes and spend themselves into oblivion, apparently thinking the federal government will bail them out when they go bankrupt, thus stealing back that tax revenue from every American. They can’t steal back productivity and the knowledge and ability that make everything work. Might that not hasten a national divorce, even a second civil war? Might not Americans living in free states refuse to fork over their hard-earned money to support the abusive, incompetent state governments that chased them out?
Final Thoughts: I’ve said this often: a national divorce, and certainly a second civil war, are to be avoided at all reasonable costs–there are things worse than civil war. I’ll not go into the various difficulties a division of that magnitude would cause. To get a sense of it, I recommend Kurt Schlichter’s Kelly Turnbull series, now totaling six books. You can find my reviews of those books here and here. They are at once sobering and prophetic. They’re entertaining, and you’ll find much in them that parallels contemporary developments, including what the Chinese intend for us.
In the writings of the Founders we find timeless wisdom. Consider this from the Declaration of Independence, written by Thomas Jefferson:
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.–That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, –That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed.
Jefferson’s last sentence well describes our status quo. Normal Americans recognize what’s wrong, and they know what’s necessary to fix it. But they’re a patient people. They believe in America, in its goodness and all it has accomplished, and they’re not going to easily throw away all they have, all those who came before have given them. Yet, their patience is not infinite. Zealots that do not recognize God or unalienable rights oppose them. Zealots who think all power comes from government, not the people, see them and the Constitution as obstacles to be ignored or crushed.
Not if, but when those arrogant fools convince Normal Americans government is unalterably destructive of those ends, the bounds of reasonable costs will be breached, and it will be too late for D/S/Cs to admit or reform their errors.
Let us pray, and do what we can to see, that never happens.
Mike, the biggest problem our side has is no organization. While the D/S/C’s have antifa and SPLC, we have the heritage institute. We need to do better.
That’s a poor count. In much of the world outside Latin America it’s only about eighty years for all but that economic strength part – and, in the Middle East, only about seventy to fifty years, depending on just which sub-region you are considering (in many places in the Middle East, though not Iran and Saudi Arabia, British and French dominance continued until the Carter Doctrine destroyed those there; indeed, Britain is still material in Oman).
And Biden is utterly wrong about needing fighter jets to take on the U.S. federal government. Michael Collins discovered and demonstrated that all you need is to identify and neutralise the lower tiers of public servants. “Neutralise” isn’t a euphemism for kill, as it works just as well if you just drive them into protected enclaves from which they can’t do their job properly – in fact, it works better, as it lets you focus on just killing those who stick their heads out. The latter, you can reach without fighter jets.
Also, please do not confuse productivity and production. As the former is a ratio of outputs to inputs, it is actually higher the more things get ring-barked (think about it).
Mike McDaniel said:
Dear P.M. Lawrence:
In using “productivity” relative to people leaving blue states, I’m referring to their potential to produce useful work/products/tax revenue.
If you use words like “productivity” to mean something else than the ordinary meaning, you too will fail to communicate just as much as the so-called woke, and through much the same technical means.
“The people fleeing blue states for free states are taking their tax dollars, and hands-on productivity, with them, yet the states they flee continue to raise taxes and spend themselves into oblivion,”
Yes, but they’re also bringing their totalitarian politics with them. See, e.g., Arizona, Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont. That is the true “weaponized government failure.”
The problem with restoring Federalism is that under our Constitution there is free movement between states. Any new Federalism must allow states to be able to decide who moves in, otherwise all you’re accomplishing is the slowing down of the inevitable.
“….including what the Chinese intend for us.”
You mean you. or Harsanyi, know for sure exactly what China has in store for us?
You honestly still believe (certainly your readers do) that any idea of “America” will survive a civil war? Mr. Phil actually makes an attempt to see something amiss with the concept.
Mike McDaniel said:
Yes I do. Are you pretending you don’t?
As I keep saying, it’s best that a national divorce, or a second civil war, never occur. If one does, it will be because Normal Americans want to preserve the Constitution and the Rule of Law.
“Yes I do. Are you pretending you don’t?”
Is that you’re response to both my queries? I’m guessing it’s your reply to your thought of surviving a civil war… because you can’t possibly have any idea what China is really planning, outside of speculation. So one might question the accuracy of your speculation, and subsequently trying to act on that same speculation.
To answer.. I don’t have the same sense of “urgency” as you for the reasons you’ve stated. Certainly I’m not about to assign a civil war threat level (veiled or otherwise) as a means to “correct” the direction of the country (…or else). You see, I see democracy (in general, and of course our form of it) as a practice in compromise. You like to assign almost god-like personas to the Founding Fathers and whatever they’ve written as some sort of “books of a political New Testament”. That’s fine if you’re in elementary school in lieu of deferring context down the educational line as maturity level advances.
You know what’s interesting… it’s alleged that a third of the popular electorate right now is on the MAGA bandwagon… and there’s crazy talk of secession and civil war. Back when those Founding Fathers sent that Declaration to the King, historians surmise the popularity for independence was 50% of the populace… and independence still won.
Mike McDaniel said:
I would think China’s designs on world domination, which of necessity portend very bad things for us, are more than obvious? They are, after all, still proud communists, and communists tend to kill anyone that gets in their way.
I would also think the Declaration, and American history, make it more than obvious talk of doing what’s necessary to preserve the Constitution is far from unprecedented, or outlandish.
Ah, but U.S. designs on world domination, which of necessity mean very bad things for the rest of us, are more than obvious too. The U.S.A. is, after all, still a proud liberator, and liberators tend to kill anyone that gets in their way. We have to worry which is the greater risk.
Mike McDaniel said:
Oh dear. You’re not actually comparing America and China in the “kill everybody we don’t like” sweepstakes, are you? I agree that trying to turn every nation on Earth trans is annoying, but not quite on the same “world domination” level as the Chinese.