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As I’m sure you know, gentle readers, there was an attack on an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas, a town of about 16,000 west of San Antonio, on 05-24-22.  I’ve waited until today to post an article on this attack in the hope more credible information would become available.  I’ll be using articles from The AP, one from Fox News, one more from Fox, and this article from Brietbart in trying to piece it all together.  As always with such events, much of what the media is reporting is surely wrong or only partially correct.  Nevertheless, here’s what I believe likely to be most accurate as this is written:

credit: google maps

The shooter, whose name I choose not to use, was an 18 year-old high school graduate from Uvalde.  He was living with his grandmother and grandfather in Uvalde.  We have no idea where his parents are or why he was living with his grandparents.  For reasons unknown, he shot and seriously injured his grandmother, who is, for the moment, still alive.

He fled in a pickup truck and wrecked it, ending up in a ditch near the elementary school.  Some sources suggest he was being pursued by police, but if so, how was he able, obviously armed, to run to and enter the school?  Entering the school, he was apparently engaged by a school resource officer, and some gunfire was exchanged.  This apparently drove the killer into a single classroom, where he shot what may be every student and the single teacher in that classroom.  At the moment, at least 19 children, and one teacher were killed, though conflicting news accounts indicate as many as three “adults” died, one of them apparently the killer, who was shot by some responding police officer.  Conflicting media accounts speak of up to 17 injured, though no more is apparently known about that number or their injuries.

Exactly how the killer died is also vague.  Some accounts suggest a single nearby Border Patrol agent rushed into the school and, trading gunfire, killed the shooter, who by various accounts was wearing a bullet resistant vest, or merely a load-bearing vest with no ballistic panels (this is most likely).  Other accounts suggest it was a BORTAC—Border Patrol SWAT team member–who neutralized the killer.  Whoever it was, that officer was reported to have been hit in a leg, either by a bullet or shrapnel of some sort, and is apparently not seriously injured.  The killer was said to have been “barricaded” in the room, but there is no information about exactly what that means.  Some number of officers were injured, apparently by gunfire, and apparently none of those suffered life-threatening injuries.

We have no idea of the timeline, but during the attack, teachers and/or police officers broke out windows to evacuate students.  At some point, the killer got into the 4th grade classroom, but we don’t know how or when.

Accounts are coalescing around the idea the killer used an AR-15 pattern rifle.  As usual, reports characterize it as an “assault weapon”—there is no such thing—or an “assault rifle,” which is a fully automatic rifle.  Whatever the killer used, it was surely not fully automatic. Most reports suggest he legally bought two rifles within the least few months, and left one in his wrecked truck.  None of this, obviously, is certain, and Governor Abbott’s initial press conference suggested the killer used a handgun and possibly a rifle of some kind.  The most recent accounts suggest a backpack containing some loaded magazines of unknown numbers and capacity was dropped near an exterior school door, potentially due to the SRO engaging the killer.  If so, this might have limited the shooter’s ammunition supply to some degree, however, other accounts suggest the killer had two backpacks, but again, there are no truly confirmed details.

At the moment, the killer appears to have had no criminal record or gang affiliation, and virtually nothing is known about him with any degree of certainty, though various media accounts characterize him as a “loner.”  There appear to have been no obvious “red flags,” other than this from Legal Insurrection:

[The killer], 18, started posting on Facebook ‘approximately 30 minutes before reaching the school,’ Abbott said of the teen, who did not appear to have a criminal record.

‘The first post .. said, ‘I’m going to shoot my grandmother.’ The second post was, ‘I shot my grandmother,’ Abbott said. “The third post, maybe less than 15 minutes before arriving at the school was, ‘I’m going to shoot an elementary school.’

Keep in mind we have no idea of the timeline.  We don’t know when he shot his grandmother, how long it took him to get to the elementary school, when he began shooting, when the SRO engaged him, if indeed one did, and when the BORTAC team engaged and killed him, if indeed one did.  We have no idea of the number of rounds fired on either side, though it appears the killer confined his murders only to that single 4th grade classroom.

With that firmly in mind, it’s highly unlikely the apparently brief time frame of the killer’s Facebook postings—again, if that information is accurate–could have allowed the police to have intercepted the killer.  In school attacks, the police, with very few exceptions, have had no role in stopping killers, who most commonly kill themselves.

As is all too common with any kind of mass shooting, D/S/Cs have scrambled over the corpses of the dead to score political points, none so shamelessly as the execrable, fake Hispanic, Beto O’Rourke:

Beto O’Rourke heckles Abbott press conference, gets escorted out

Democrat Beto O’Rourke engaged in a fiery exchange Wednesday with Texas Lt. Gov Dan Patrick during Gov. Abbott’s press conference about the Uvalde shooting.

O’Rourke, who is running for governor of Texas, approached the front of the room and started making comments to Abbott and Patrick.

‘You are doing nothing,’ O’Rourke was heard telling them at one point.

O’Rourke was asked repeatedly to leave the auditorium.

Uvalde Mayor Don McLaughlin then called O’Rourke a ‘sick son of a b—-‘ who came to the event to make a ‘political issue.’

Under the circumstances, Mayor McLaughlin showed admirable restraint.  Even CBS News(?!) has reported O’Rourke’s stupidity as a planned political stunt, though it may have been more “planned” that we imagine.  More on that shortly.  In the previous paragraphs, I’ve explained what we know, and once again, considering all of that comes from media sources, I’ve reconstructed events as best I could.

I did see Temporary President Biden’s diatribe, however.  For those who missed it: you’re fortunate.  He displayed his usual mental impairment, but began, fumbling and unsure, more or less appropriately, by speaking of the horror sane people feel at the death of a child.  That lasted only a minute or so, and he, angry and shouting, launched into a standard, D/S/C anti-liberty/gun narrative.  I expect nothing from him, but he exceeded my expectations yet again, sinking to new lows. I certainly don’t expect Biden’s handlers, through their meat puppet, to do anything to unite America, but one would think they at least would have the decency at a time like this not to actively tear us apart.  One would think.  A White House provided transcript of his remarks is available here.  

As regular readers know, I post a yearly series on the realities of school attacks, and effective measures to deter and/or stop them.  To find last year’s series, enter “school attacks 2021” in the SMM home page search bar.  I’ll update that series once again, most likely in mid-August.  What follows are observations based on what we probably know about the Uvalde attack, and things we know to be true in general:

*Why did Biden, who tends to avoid public appearances, speak so soon—within hours–after the attack?  Why did the vile O’Rourke show his ass so soon after the attack?  This might provide a clue:

I found this montage in the comments section of the initial article on the attack at The Last Refuge.  The reader posting it did not provide any attribution or other identifying information, though they represented these photos as the killer.

These photos, apart from the upper left hand photo, have not been validated by anyone as the killer, and even that one, which does appear to resemble other media posted photos of the killer, is not unquestionably him.  The photos appear to have been taken from some social media site, but even that isn’t certain, and The Last Refuge, AKA The Conservative Treehouse, has not validated or otherwise commented on the photos as this is written.

That said, if we take the photos at face value, they would appear to suggest the killer identified as trans or something similar.  Was he taking “transitional” hormones?  Was he, apart from the mental illness of gender dysphoria, mentally ill?  If he was, in fact, trans or something like it, that does provide an obvious motivation for the speed of Biden’s comments and O’Rourke’s grotesquely inappropriate political stunt: distraction and deflection.

There is no contemporary virtue signaling as important and as meaningful—to D/S/Cs–as trans virtue signaling.  Trans whatevers and their pronouns are of the utmost political importance to the Left, displacing women, and even black issues.  If one of them were the killer, that would tend to make D/S/Cs look like immoral idiots for so praising them.  Would this not encourage Biden’s handlers to immediately try to change the subject?  Would this not cause a true believer like O’Rourke, perhaps with the “encouragement” of the Party and even the White House, to destroy his chances of becoming Governor of Texas—he’d be wise not to show his face in Texas for awhile–to further distract from what could be a significant motivating factor in this case?

Again, I have no idea if the killer was trans, or even if those photos are of the killer and from where they came.  If he was trans or anything like it, we can be certain any social media account where such information might be found has already been scrubbed.  Take it for what it may, or may not, be worth.

*School attacks remain rare.  The odds of any individual child being involved in such an attack are vanishingly small.  However, in most of America, there is nothing stopping an attacker from killing children and teachers. Schools and “educators” who would kick police officers out of their schools aren’t going to countenance armed teachers. Go here for a classic Bill Whittle video that tells the truth about just how violent America isn’t, compared with the rest of the world.

*No school, anywhere in America, is immune, though a small percentage have taken effective deterrence and response steps.

*In schools that advertise and allow armed staff, not a single teacher, child or staff member has been injured during school hours.  

*The school attacks with the highest body counts have not occurred in America.

*The worst school attack in American history remains the Bath, MI attack of 1927, where using exclusively explosives, the attacker killed 38 students and six adults.  The second most deadly remains the Virginia Tech attack of 2007, where 32 died and more than a dozen were injured.  That killer used two common handguns, one in .22LR caliber.

Contrast this with the 11-21-21 attack on a Christmas parade in Waukesha, WI, where a man drove an SUV through a parade, killing six and wounding some 70.  The media, learning the killer was black, immediately began to downplay it, saying things like: “a SUV drove through a Christmas parade,” as though the unoccupied vehicle spontaneously committed the crimes.  Because no gun was used, and the killer was black, that massacre didn’t fit any D/S/C narrative, and they’ve said virtually nothing about it since.

*As is common, the media, politicians and various cracktivists have demanded banning all AR-15 and similar firearms.  In this case, they’re screaming AR-15s are specifically designed, and intended, for killing school children.  The reality is rifles are used in only a tiny portion of all crimes, and AR-15 pattern rifles, a tiny portion of that tiny portion.  More people die by fist and foot than rifles of any kind.

*Various pundits continue to demand armed police officers in every school.  With “defund the police lunacy,” which has abated only slightly, many of the officers posted in schools were removed.  Putting even a single officer in every school is impossible.  There aren’t enough police and there is not enough money in police budgets.  A single officer is better than nothing, but is inadequate to cover even a medium sized school building.

NOTE:  Most people don’t know in any school district, school resource officers—certified police officers—are normally present full time only in high schools where there is much more crime.  If any are present in elementary schools, it’s commonly part time.  Three or more elementary schools may share a single officer, so they do it on a rotating daily basis—at best.  Usually, they only drop by from time to time; each school is uncovered much of the time.

*The police have no legal obligation to protect any citizen.  This sounds crazy, but is absolutely necessary.  Take this link to find out why.  

*When a school attack occurs, seconds matter.  The police, at best, will be many minutes away.  Go here for a fictional account that illustrates this reality.  Go here for a detailed timeline of the Parkland attack.  Go here for a detailed timeline of the Newtown—Sandy Hook Elementary—attack.  What you’ll find in each of those accounts is hard, cold reality: the police cannot stop a killer from killing many innocents.  The Uvalde attack is unusual in that the killer engaged, and was eventually killed by, the police, who were not able to keep him from killing those children and at least one teacher.

*When police arrive at a school where an attack is underway, they’re at a great disadvantage.  Schools are like mazes, and it’s difficult to immediately zero in on a shooter.  Seconds matter.

*President Biden—and others–would have us believe disarming the law-abiding will keep school attacks from ever happening again.  He’s deluded.  None of the anti-liberty/gun measures he demands would have stopped this, or any other, school shooter.  We cannot stop them, but we can deter them, and we can limit the number of those injured and killed.

*There is no single, unifying profile of a school attacker.  There is no sure way to identify and intercept potential school shooters.  Despite being under psychiatric care for most of his life, no one identified the Newtown shooter as dangerous.  The Parkland shooter was so identified, and the local police and FBI, and even the school district, were aware of the danger, but all either did nothing effective, or nothing at all.

*I watched a retired NYPD cop suggest “mantraps” are the answer.  Others suggested only a single entrance to schools.  Neither “solution” will work for most schools, which are not designed for security.  Virtually every school in America has many doors and more windows, all of which are easily breached.  The Sandy Hook killer, finding the front doors to the school locked, shot out a large pane of glass within seconds.  Even removing doors and windows is not enough.  A vehicle can breach virtually any school wall.

And what can be done about recess or field trips?  Do we build fortresses and lock children and teachers inside them, never allowing them to see the sun or breathe fresh air?  Do we then, when they come to school, or leave the building, say: “too bad.  When you haven’t yet arrived or when you leave the building, you’re on your own?”

*The only, effective tactic is allowing willing teachers and other staff members to carry concealed handguns.  They’re the people always present, who know their buildings, who should and shouldn’t be there and what is and isn’t normal.  Go here for a supporting article.  

If what we know at the moment turns out to be accurate, if the teacher in that classroom were armed, they might have been able to neutralize the killer while his attention was focused on shooting at the SRO or other officers.  As it was, that school district apparently does not allow teachers to be armed.  She was helpless.  Hockey pucks, tiny little bats, canned vegetables and buckets of rocks, even if she had them, would have availed her nothing.

*School districts that publicize—constantly—they allow armed staff, deter killers, who will instead attack districts that proudly display “gun free” signs.

*Armed teachers, present when and where attacks occur, can stop entirely, or limit, damage.  Seconds matter.

Final Thoughts:  We can learn from experience, and when more is known about the Uvalde attack, I’ll post an article comparing and contrasting it with the Newtown and Parkland attacks.  The information I’ve provided in this article is only a portion of what I’ll provide in much more detail in the upcoming update of the school attack series, which again, I’ll post beginning in mid-August.  It is possible to greatly harden schools, even to deter attackers, without ruinous cost.  More soon.

UPDATE, 05-26-22, 1850 MT:  Through a variety of sources, including Tucker Carlson Tonight, here is what we now know:

*After the killer crashed near the school, for the next 12 minutes, he fired at two people—without result—at a nearby funeral home, apparently fired an unknown number of rounds at the school building, and walked into the school unopposed.  A nearby resident witnessed all of this, and some LE spokesman have largely confirmed it.

*We do not know if he hit the school building or if anyone was injured.

*There was no school resource officer involved.  No SRO traded fire with the killer, and no SRO was injured.  We do not know if Robb Elementary had an assigned SRO, though a DPS spokesman said none were present.

*Some four minutes after the killer entered the building, 16 minutes after he crashed, four officers apparently entered the building—this is not confirmed—but apparently quickly left the building.  We do not know what, if anything, they did in the building, nor do we know for what LE agencies they worked.

*After those four officers abandoned the children to their fate, no police officers entered the building for 45 to 60 minutes, though some accounts suggest some were in the building at some point trying to evacuate students.  When the police did enter after an hour, and this was apparently the BORTAC team, we have no idea how long it took them to locate and kill the murderer.

*During that hour, citizens, including parents, were outraged.  Police prevented them from entering the building, and one mother was briefly handcuffed.  When she was released, she jumped the school fence, entered the building and rescued her two sons.  This while the police were outside “containing” and “planning,” apparently while gunshots were heard from inside.

*There are reports some police officers with children at the school entered and rescued their children, which have been at least glancingly confirmed by a DPS Lt.

*At this point, we have no idea why it took at least 16 minutes for any officer to arrive at the school.

*Unconfirmed reports suggest the Tac team couldn’t breach the classroom door and had to get a teacher with a key.  This, if accurate, is bizarre.  Such teams have purpose designed breaching tools, and even if they did not, any fire department does.

*Watching Texas DPS—state troopers—representatives speak to reporters, my initial impression is they are working very hard not to construct a complete timeline, but to cover their asses.  How they can possibly explain how a large number of officers from multiple agencies stood around outside, hearing gunfire inside, and did nothing…I’m just glad I don’t have to explain that.

To be absolutely fair, it takes time to construct a timeline.  Every witness, law enforcement and otherwise, must be interviewed.  An initial round of interviews always raises additional questions, which leads to new witnesses, and the necessity of re-interviewing previous witnesses.  The dispatch tapes, which are time stamped, of every agency involved, at this point, School District officers, local police, local sheriff’s deputies, the Border Patrol, the DPS, and Lord knows who else, must be reviewed, verified, and all must be reconciled.  This will likely take weeks—if every agency is working to know what happened rather than covering their asses.

At the moment, it appears they’re going to need a lot of cover.  I’ll have another article at the beginning of next week, likely Tuesday.