The Proximate Cause of WWIII
By Jonathan P. Lee, PhD
It has long been taken as “settled science,” to use a long-discredited dodge, that the cause of WWIII was primarily Israel’s apparently preemptive use of nuclear weapons. However, the opening of formerly secret Chinese Politburo archives after the “Spring Revolution” of 2091, combined with related revelations from the files of the intelligence Bureaus of several other nations has provided a much clearer and more accurate picture of the proximate cause of a war that initially cost more than four million lives.
I expect the findings I provide here to be controversial, and hope that the inevitable controversy will provide a vehicle for more broadly based scholarship. However, these findings are based entirely in compelling and authentic evidence, evidence that was, for many years and in many cases, ruthlessly suppressed by not only academic and media sources, but by the governments of many nations.
Israel was not to blame. The United States was.
By this I do not mean to lessen the responsibility of China. Its seizure of Taiwan in the Fall of 2016 was the seminal event that provoked a world wide conflagration, but new evidence revealed in the personal papers of then Chinese Premier and Politburo Head, Wang Yangdong, make clear that China would not have attacked Taiwan, United States and allied forces in the region, if the Politburo had not been convinced that America would do nothing to oppose them, a conviction that history records was accurate.
Circa late Summer, 2016, the Chinese were nearing completion of a massive military modernization project. Realizing that sheer numbers of troops would not, by themselves, win future wars, the Chinese, through hacking, espionage, blackmail and occasionally merely buying what they wanted, had significantly upgraded the technological prowess of their armed forces, while still maintaining millions of soldiers under arms. The building and arming of artificial islands in the East and South China seas was nearly complete, providing defense against American aircraft.
Wang Yangdong had every reason to believe that then-President Barack Obama would do nothing to oppose a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Mr. Obama’s feckless capitulation to Iran and Russia, as well as his support for Islamist movements around the world painted a favorable picture. With only a few months left in office, and determined to preserve the one-sided Iran nuclear deal as his crowning foreign policy legacy, Mr. Obama would do nothing that might make it appear his foreign policy was not a stunning success. It was this that led him to ignore China’s military buildup, to which he responded only with occasional hectoring rhetoric and by sending the occasional destroyer to cruise within 12 miles of several of China’s militarized artificial islands.
Yangdong’s internal communications make clear that the trigger for the Chinese invasion was an internal American political decision, made by then-Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell. Yangdong and the rest of the Politburo, while having no fear of Barack Obama, were worried that the Republican members of the Congress would force a devastating military response to Chinese aggression. Even if Obama balked, they might impeach him and through public opinion, make a serious military response inevitable. Many on the Politburo believed that the Americans could not possibly respond quickly enough to prevent China from achieving all of its goals, but a more cautious faction, worried that in the case of war, America would declare all debts to China dissolved, held sway.
As it turned out, as it often has in the affairs of nations, it was an unexpected and seemingly internationally inconsequential decision that lit the fuse of war. In February of 2016, Conservative Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia unexpectedly died at the age of 79. Senate Majority Leader McConnell swore that the Senate would not replace Scalia until after the next presidential election when Republicans hoped to elect a Republican president while maintaining control of the House and the Senate. As it turned out, McConnell’s fecklessness led to the election of Democrat Hillary Clinton, and Democrat seizure of the Senate, which placed, after abolishing the filibuster and within the next four years, three additional Liberal justices on the Supreme Court.
This, however, was not the seminal event. As the summer, and the presidential contest, wore on, McConnell and other Senate Republicans began to feel political pressure to not only vote on, but to confirm President Obama’s nominee for the Supreme Court: former Attorney General Eric Holder. This was a situation the Chinese Politburo was closely watching. They reasoned that if the Republican Senate deferred to Obama, they lacked the will to oppose him in anything. If China seized Taiwan, America would do nothing. They were right. When the Senate voted 62-34 to confirm Holder, Politburo hardliners had the evidence they needed, and the invasion of Taiwan was ordered.
America’s military posture in the region was then focused on avoiding any seriously provocative gestures, so intelligence assets missed most of the signs of Chinese intentions, at least in part because China had, for many years, been prepositioning assets. China’s substantial fleet of advanced diesel submarines, as well as its enormous arsenal of anti-ship missiles, were instrumental in the virtual obliteration of the Harry S. Truman Carrier Battle Group. Overwhelmed by hundreds–perhaps thousands, of missiles and torpedoes, the Harry S. Truman was sunk, with the loss of at least 4600 lives. Only two destroyers and three nuclear attack submarines were able to escape destruction, though not without damage. The Carrier Battle Group was able to inflict substantial damage on Chinese military targets, including China’s sole aircraft carrier, but without the Harry S. Truman and the remainder of the battle group, after expending their onboard munitions, attack planes were forced to land in nearby friendly nations. Without logistical support, they were out of the fight. Many were forced to ditch in the sea.
One American submarine commander, ignoring orders, and with the agreement of his crew, fired his full complement of nuclear and conventional missiles at Chinese military targets. He and his crew were court-martialed and imprisoned, but later released and pardoned when it was discovered that these strikes alone prevented the Chinese from attacking remaining American military bases in the region, as well as American allies, saving hundred of thousands of lives and preventing the annexation of several allied nations.
The combination of enormous numbers of troops and weapons, as well as more advanced technology, though generally inferior to American technology of the day, proved initially effective for the Chinese. Even if Mr. Obama were inclined to retaliate–and he was not–there was little America could have done short of nuclear strikes, also off the table for Mr. Obama.
The loss of the carrier battle group forced virtually all remaining American military assets and installations in the region, most of which had already experienced substantial drawdowns of personnel and equipment, to adopt an entirely defensive posture. President Obama declined to respond to the urgent calls for help from the Taiwanese President, and Chinese troops completely occupied Taiwan within 19 days. This aggression would lead to the eventual destruction of the Communist Chinese Regime some 40 years later, but the attack not only paralyzed America, it once and for all, convinced the rest of the world that it could not rely on any American treaty or promise.
This obvious realization was not lost on America’s other enemies. Within days. Russia attacked, and completed its annexation of Ukraine. From there, it continued on to Lithuania and Belarus, and stood ready to invade Poland. Russia’s failure to continue into Poland remained a mystery for decades until it was finally revealed that Germany and England made a credible threat of nuclear strikes against Russia if it did not desist.Realizing that his armies massed on the Polish border were particularly vulnerable and feeling comfortable with his accomplishment, won at little cost of Russian military lives and equipment, Russian President Vladimir Putin relented, though continued, for decades until his death, with less provocative aggressions.
Simultaneous with Russia’s attack, Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Fatah, and other Islamist clients of Iran, readied their pre-positioned weapons and manpower for the final obliteration of Israel. Fortunately, Israel, having long recognized Barack Obama as their enemy actively working against Israeli interests, had sufficient intelligence and military assets in place. Israeli commandos were able to detonate a nuclear weapon in Iran’s primary underground nuclear weapon storage facility, destroying some 30 warheads. Advanced stealthy nuclear cruise missiles unknown to the rest of the world struck Iran’s remaining above ground, ready nuclear storage facilities, and were successful in destroying Iran’s remaining offensive nuclear weapons. The nuclear weapons Iran worked so long and hard to produce were never used against Israel.
With the beginning of the launch of thousands of rockets, bearing explosive, chemical and biological warheads, into Israel from Palestinian-held territory and Southern Lebanon, Israel detonated multiple tactical nuclear weapons, essentially surrounding Israel with nuclear fire and eliminating its primary, front line, Islamist enemies in a single stroke. Before this was accomplished, the Islamists managed to fire more than 3000 rockets into Israel. Some 70% were intercepted by Israel’s “Iron Dome” systems, but more than 4000 Israelis were killed and 11,000 injured.
Follow-on Israeli nuclear cruise missile strikes all but obliterated Iran’s major and minor military bases and nuclear facilities. Iranian targets in Syria were comparatively easy pickings for Israeli-developed and manufactured conventional weapons. The destruction of the military and intelligence apparatus that propped up the Iranian theocracy allowed Iran’s young–then most of the nation–to depose the Islamists and establish a productive, democratic nation based on the British parliamentary tradition. The American model was rejected as too weak and corrupt to adequately protect the Iranian people.
Condemnation of Israel’s actions in the United Nations was immediate and violent, but with half of the western democracies withdrawing from membership, sparked by the well-publicized withdrawal of the new Iranian government, condemnation was all that was accomplished.
On the same day of China’s attack on Taiwan, North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Un ordered North Korea’s long planned strike against the South. However, South Korea had also long understood that despite the continued presence of American troops in South Korea, they could expect help only from in-country American military assets, and only until Barack Obama ordered them to cease fire and withdraw from South Korea.
With a few exceptions, the intelligence agencies of the world were surprised to learn that South Korea had developed nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them to the North. When huge numbers of North Korean troops began to mass near the border, South Korea met them with nuclear weapons, obliterating hundreds of thousands of men and enormous quantities of artillery and other arms in an instant. Massive attack tunnels dug across the border by North Korea had, for the most part, already been detected, and heavily mined. The relatively few North Korean troops left to infiltrate through those tunnels were killed in the process by waiting South Korean troops, who took no prisoners. As many as one million North Korean troops were killed in the initial nuclear attack, and nearly a half million more were killed in tactical nuclear and conventional attacks on remaining North Korean military and political installations. At last, North and South Korea were unified, though the process proved to be more difficult than anyone predicted.
It is well documented that America quickly retreated within its national borders, and used its military to establish a continental fortress. Immigration was soon entirely stopped. The Second American Revolution of 2021 led to the redrawing of the American map and the forcible relocation to the former states of California, Nevada, Oregon and Washington State, of Americans unwilling to honor the newly drawn Constitution, which strictly limited the power of the Federal Government, the Congress and the Judiciary, banned public employee unions, and imposed strict criminal penalties for corruption by public officials. The Religious Freedom Restoration Act of 2020 banned any religion whose religious texts or doctrine mandated violence, conquest, or the harming of women. All foreign citizens or visitors refusing to fully assimilate or to fully honor the Constitution were deported without recourse or ceremony.
Because the new American republic declared all debts and obligations incurred by the prior American government null and void, China was effectively deprived of the funds necessary for future military adventurism, and turned its efforts inward in an eventually fruitless attempt to keep its population under control. Islamists remaining in America attempted attacks, but were soon killed. Few were captured alive. America cut off all external Internet communications. It would take until 2062 before America once again began to expand onto the world stage.
In the meantime, much of the map of the pre-invasion world had also been redrawn.
In the period between 2016 and 2082, the worldwide death toll was estimated to exceed 300 million. War, terrorism, disease, starvation, genocide, all took a toll and a substantial portion of the world was plunged into near pre-industrial squalor. It was only the reemergence of America, and the leadership of President Sarah Adams–a distant relative of John Adams–with an allied national Assembly, who negotiated new alliances on America’s terms, that began to restore western civilization to much of the rest of the world. Canada emerged as an even stronger ally and trading partner of the new American nation, and took an active role in the new world order.
However, it can now be determined with reliability that the cause of the war that laid waste to much of the world was not a preemptive nuclear attack by Israel, an attack that saved Israel from destruction and led to vastly improved relations with its remaining neighbors, many of whom Israel helped to preserve, at the price of substantial democratic reform, in following years. It was a cause as old as mankind: appeasement and weakness.
The American Senate, refusing to protect the American Constitution against political forces determined to turn America into a Socialist collective, demonstrated to America’s enemies that they lacked the will to preserve America’s republican democracy, and lacking even that, obviously lacked the determination to uphold their defense obligations and alliances.
Barack Obama’s legacy became the destruction of a substantial portion of humanity and a half-century of abject horror.